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Climate change is one of the most pressing issues of our time, with far-reaching consequences for ecosystems and biodiversity [1]. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and increased extreme weather events are reshaping the distribution and abundance of species worldwide. As a result, many species are facing unprecedented threats to their survival, leading to increased extinction risk. The current rate of climate change is unparalleled in recent geological history, with temperatures projected to increase by 2-5°C by the end of the century [2]. This rapid change is forcing species to adapt, migrate, or face extinction. Understanding the impacts of climate change on species distribution and extinction risk is critical for informing effective conservation and management strategies. Global change ecology, an interdisciplinary field of research, seeks to understand the complex interactions between climate change, ecosystems, and species. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge on the impact of climate change on species distribution and extinction risk, highlighting key drivers.

Research background

Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change, with significant implications for biodiversity and ecosystems [3]. The country’s unique geography, ranging from the Himalayan mountains to the Arabian sea, supports a diverse array of flora and fauna.

Climate change in Pakistan

• Rising temperatures: 0.5-1.5°C increase in average temperature since 1960.

• Changing precipitation patterns: Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

• Increased frequency of heatwaves and droughts.

Impact on species distribution

• Shifts in species ranges: Upslope migration of plants and animals.

• Changes in phenology: Earlier migration and breeding.

• Disruptions to species interactions and food webs.

Extinction risk

• IUCN Red List: 22% of Pakistan’s flora and fauna threatened with extinction.

• Habitat loss and fragmentation: Deforestation, urbanization, and infrastructure development.

• Climate-driven changes in ecosystem services: Impacts on pollination, pest control, and nutrient cycling.

Regional vulnerability

• Himalayan ecosystems: Glacier melting, changing snow patterns.

• Indus river delta: Sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion.

• Arid and semi-arid regions: Drought, desertification.

Research gaps

• Limited studies on climate change impacts on Pakistani biodiversity.

• Lack of data on species-specific responses.

• Insufficient understanding of ecosystem services and functional diversity.

Objective

• Assess climate change impacts on species distribution and extinction risk in Pakistan.

• Identify regional vulnerabilities and hotspots.

• Inform conservation and management strategies mechanisms, and consequences.

Species distribution modeling

• Select species: Representative taxa from different ecosystems (e.g., Himalayan brown bear, Indus dolphin).

• Climate data: Temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise (Pakistan Meteorological Department) [4].

• Habitat data: Land cover, land use, topography (National Spatial Data Infrastructure).

• Modeling tools: MaxEnt, ArcGIS.

Ecosystem-based analysis

• Select ecosystems: Himalayan mountains, Indus River Delta, arid and semi-arid regions.

• Climate data: Temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise.

• Ecosystem services: Pollination, pest control, nutrient cycling [5].

• Functional diversity: Species traits, community composition.

Data analysis

• Descriptive statistics: Means, standard deviations, correlations [6].

• Inferential statistics: Regression analysis, ANOVA.

• Spatial analysis: GIS, spatial autocorrelation.

Case studies

• Himalayan brown bear: Habitat fragmentation, climate-driven changes.

• Indus dolphin: River fragmentation, sea-level rise.

• Arid region flora: Drought, desertification.

Expert consultations

• Interviews with climate scientists, ecologists, conservationists.

• Focus groups: Stakeholders, policymakers [7].

Data sources

• Pakistan Meteorological Department

• National Spatial Data infrastructure.

• IUCN Red List.

• Research Articles.

1. IPCC (2020) Climate change 2020: Impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation. Part B: Regional Aspects.
2. Khan (2018) Climate change impacts on biodiversity in Pakistan. J Environ Sci.
3. Gilani H, Goheer MA, Ahmad H, Hussain K (2020) Ecol Indic 111: 106049.

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4. Ali H, Din JU, Bosso L, Hameed S, Kabir M, et al. (2021) PloS One 16: e0260031.

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5. Hayat U, Akram M, Kour S, Arif T, Shi J (2023) . Forests 14: 253.

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6. Siddique MT, Molinos JG (2024) . Sci Total Environ 916: 169948.

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7. Khanum R, Mumtaz AS, Kumar S (2013) . Acta Oecologica 49: 23-31.

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